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Australian-Owned Debris Projection

 Below is the Australian-owned debris projection table created for this project and is current as of August 19, 2023. All citations in creation to this table can be seen under the 'citations' tab. Below the database contains another table to explain and define the datasets pertaining to each satellite. 

SKY MUSTER 1
15 Years (Gunter's space page)
2030
Yes
SKY MUSTER 2
15 Years (Gunter's space page)
2031
Yes
BUCCANEER RMM
5 (USC)
2023
Yes
TYVAK-0171 (EG 2)
No Information
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
Yes
TYVAK-0172 (EG 1)
No Information
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
Yes
BUCCANEER RMM
5 (USC)
2023
Yes
I-INSPIRE II (AU03) (Cubesat)
0.5 years/ 6 months (Gunter's space page)
Decayed
No
SUSAT(AU01)
3 months (Gunter's space page)
Decayed
No
UNSW-ECO (AUO2)
No Information
Decayed
No
SIRION PATHFINDER II
No Information
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
Yes
Centauri 2
3 Years (Sky Brokers)
Decayed
No
M2 Pathfinder
No Information
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
Yes
Satellite Name
Designed Misson Lifetime/ Expected lifetime
Year Predicted Debris (Inactive)
Debris Created (2023-2033)
WRESAT
No Information
Decayed
No
Australis - OSCAR 5 (AO-5)
No Information
Decayed
No
OPTUS AUSSAT A1
15 Years (USC)
2023 (already debris)
Yes
OPTUS AUSSAT A2
15 Years (USC)
2023 (already debris)
Yes
OPTUS AUSSAT A3
15 Years (USC)
2023 (already debris)
Yes
OPTUS AUSSAT B2
No Information
Decayed
No
OPTUS AUSSAT B1
15 Years (USC)
2023 (already debris)
Yes
OPTUS AUSSAT B3
15 Years (USC)
2023 (already debris)
Yes
WESTPACT
No Information
Many decades predicted
No
FedSat
No Information
Decayed
No
OPTUS C1
15 Years (expected use until 2034)
2034
No
OPTUS D1
15 Years + 5 years extended lifetime (Optus)
2026
Yes
OPTUS D2
15 Years + 5 years extended lifetime (Optus)
2027
Yes
OPTUS D3
15 Years + 6 years extended lifetime (Optus)
2031
Yes
OPTUS 10
15 Years + 5 years extended lifetime (Optus)
2029
Yes
SKY MUSTER 1
15 Years (Gunter's space page)
2030
Yes
M1
No Information
2023 (already debris)
Yes
Centauri 1
No Information
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
Yes
Proxima 2
No Information
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
Yes
Proxima 1
No Information
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
Yes
ACRUX 1
1-2 Years (Melbourne Space Program)
Decayed
No
TYVAK-0171 (EG 2)
No Information
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
Yes
M2-A
No Information
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
Yes
M2-B
No Information
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
Yes
CENTAURI-3
3 Years (Fleet Space Technologies)
2024
Yes
CENTAURI-4
3 Years (Fleet Space Technologies)
2024
Yes
MYRIOTA 7 (TYVAK-0152)
No Information
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
Yes
TYVAK-0173 (EG3)
No Information
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
Yes
CUAVA 1
No Information
Decayed
No
Binar 1
1.5
Decacyed
No
Centauri-5
No Information
Between 2023-2033 due to Cube Sat configuration)
Yes
Skykraft-1
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
2028
Yes
Skykraft-1D
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
2028
Yes
Skykraft-1A
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
2028
Yes
Skykraft-1B
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
2028
Yes
Skykraft-1C
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
2028
Yes
Skykraft-3
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
2028
Yes
Skykraft-3A
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
2028
Yes
Skykraft-3B
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
2028
Yes
Skykraft-3C
5 Years (Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore)
2028
Yes

Graph 1 - Number of Satellites that Will or Will Not Create Debris Between 2023-2033

 Of the 49 Australian-owned satellites launched, 48 were counted for this aspect of research, as satellite M2 has now split to become M2- A and M2-B. As such, M2 itself was not counted in this section. Subsequently, graph 1 shows that 35 satellites will create debris, by already being inactive or are predicted to become inactive during 2023- 2033, whilst 13 satellites will not contribute to the debris count, namely as they are already decayed or have a predicted lifetime beyond 2033. The table above shows that there was a lack of information found for some active satellites in regard to their designed operational or mission lifetime. This pertains to the satellite’s ability to transmit or receive signals.

Debris created yes no.png

Graph 2 - Number of Active Satellites Predicted to Become Debris Between 2023-2033

For the current 35 active satellites, information pertaining to only 24 of the active satellites could be tabulated. As such, the figure below accordingly represents those 24 satellites. Any information regarding the satellite’s designed or projected operational lifetime found, then a predicted lifetime was projected based off the launch year of the satellite. This was then recorded in the table to be reflected by the figure below. The 9 satellites predicted to become debris in 2028 is due to the 5 year designed mission lifetime of the 2023 SkyKraft satellites, as stated by Skykraft Chairman, Mark Skidmore (Blenkin, 2022). Additionally, debris of 9 of the satellites displayed can be attributed to Optus satellites that are currently inactive or are predicted to become inactive according to their designed operational lifetime, or due to extended lifetime adjustments. The remaining 11 active satellites that are not graphed above are all of CubeSat configurations, namely with shorter operational lifetimes. As such, in accordance with their launch years, it was predicted that they will become inactive between 2023-2033, hence, being recorded in graph 1.

Debris 2023-2033.png

Graph 3 - Operators Responsible for Australian-Owned Satellite Debris between 2023-2033

This graph represents the same as above but also shows the responsible operators for Australian-owned satellite debris over the next decade.

Screenshot 2023-10-27 132104.png
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